but these are new risks of arbitrary severity, from trivial to devastating, that did not exist at all before
I disagree. The risks of arbitrary severity are already there, we have just slowly evolved into handling them how we handle them now, learned (sometimes) from the mistakes either how to handle them better or just accept the consequences as “how things are.”
So, I do agree that rapid switching to letting AI handle things will mis-handle the old risks in new and unanticipated ways. Maybe if AI helps us actually build a space elevator or functional fusion Tokamaks or other things like that then that will be creating significant new risks with their own new issues.
we have to do that hard work and be real with ourselves, rather than hand-wave them away because of the potentially thrilling prospects.
AI is just the latest shiny in a long list of shinies that enthusiastic entreprenuers have hand-waved all the hard work around the real challenges away about. I think self driving cars are a pretty good example of how this “disaster waiting to happen” will really roll out - things like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYkv6jvTpCchttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg etc. Is it regrettable that Elaine died? Yes - right along with the other 6000+ pedestrians killed by human drivers that year in the US alone.
I feel that we must largely agree, because you are making similar points to me, albeit with somewhat different apparent sentiment.
For example, your points illustrate that there are perfectly good examples of the previous systems having horrible, regrettable, issues, as well.
I think the real meat of my concerns with this rapid and, in my opinion, reckless and completely unregulated rollout, is that when something does go spectacularly wrong with an AI product, everyone throws their hands up and shouts “NOT IT!” when its time for responsibility and culpability to get handed out.
Personally, I am totally fine with this technology and really any technology so long as the responsible parties are made responsible for their failures and negligence. Today, big tech is trying to claim all the accolades and money for AI, and zero of the responsibility, and are so far being allowed to do so.
Frankly, it seems that they have so thoroughly captured the levers of government meant to regulate them that we will have to wait for their insurers to force them to take responsibility, since someone has to hold the bag when there’s lawsuits. They’ve got a strong lobby, too.
I think we do, except, AI is just another (big, powerful, broad reaching implications) tech, like the internet, or computers, or nuclear fission, or spaceflight (artificial satellites), or powered flight, or the steam engine, or steel making, or circumnavigation capable sailing ships, or gunpowder…
None of those things switched on all at once in an instant, and AI has been creeping up on us for 60+ years. The past 2 or 3 have been a rather dramatic acceleration, fulfilling much of the promise and expectation of the past 50 years, but it’s still not as great as people imagine it could be - a lot like everything else on the list above. Most people “on the cusp” of those technologies had very different visions for what they would bring to the world compared with what actually happened.
Can we “shoot ourselves in the foot” with this one? Yes, but you could do the same with a rock in a bamboo pole with a little gunpowder, too.
But that’s just one guy’s poor foot, or several volunteers tragically crashing to their deaths, etc. These guys are terraforming the planet to be hostile to ours and many (most?) other species as a side effect of their technology.
Even if this technology is twice as earthshattering as the Internet or gunpowder or you name it, it is hard to see the point if most or even many of us have to suffer and die, similarly condemning our heirs, just to force it to market before its time.
This is not some remote future possibility or granola eating hippie concern. There are permit requests on file all over the North America, among others, for AI data facilities that propose to use more water and power than their entire province/state they reside in does, and are securing sweetheart deals for those resources, passing the costs onto the community. The aquifers are draining, the cities are sinking, and their power bills are rising already, and they’re not even built all built yet.
These technologies have a lot of promise and in some non-LLM applications, have already produced incredible results, but to unleash it for mass consumption is irresponsible on a global scale. I can’t help but see current cloud LLMs as large scale basic answer and structured data generators also capable of the not useless ability to perform hundreds of “bad programmer” man-hours in minutes, but they run on a furnace fueled by metaphorical countless burning orphans, and our business and political leaders are taking the stance that is the non-negotiable cost of progress, and it isn’t.
These guys are terraforming the planet to be hostile to ours and many (most?) other species as a side effect of their technology.
Don’t need AI for that, and it’s not just cars and trucks, either - all transportation (including rail, ship, air) only accounts for 25-30% of fossil fuel consumption. Yeah, AI’s making it worse, so are people’s latest PS3-4-5 gaming consoles, and air conditioning, and steel foundaries, concrete, etc.
This is not some remote future possibility or granola eating hippie concern.
Yes, actually, it is. The granola eating hippies were, and still are, right.
everyone throws their hands up and shouts “NOT IT!” when its time for responsibility and culpability to get handed out.
Oh, like the financial crisis of 2008-9 - bail us out, we’re too big to fail - it’s not our fault that we rushed into the unregulated territory and ignored all the risk… The taxpayers are the ultimate insurance underwriters.
as the responsible parties are made responsible for their failures and negligence
As such, regardless of technological involvement or not, you must be just about as sad as I am about the current trends regarding responsibility, accountability, enforcement of legal precedents, stability of our systems, etc. In that respect, I’ll say the state of AI is more a symptom than a cause.
wait for their insurers to force them to take responsibility, since someone has to hold the bag when there’s lawsuits.
There was a scene in Star Wars (the original: A New Hope) where “the senate will no longer be a problem, the emperor has disbanded the body…” I’m waiting for them to start talking about doing that with the courts, they talk about every other outrageous thing imaginable.
I disagree. The risks of arbitrary severity are already there, we have just slowly evolved into handling them how we handle them now, learned (sometimes) from the mistakes either how to handle them better or just accept the consequences as “how things are.”
So, I do agree that rapid switching to letting AI handle things will mis-handle the old risks in new and unanticipated ways. Maybe if AI helps us actually build a space elevator or functional fusion Tokamaks or other things like that then that will be creating significant new risks with their own new issues.
AI is just the latest shiny in a long list of shinies that enthusiastic entreprenuers have hand-waved all the hard work around the real challenges away about. I think self driving cars are a pretty good example of how this “disaster waiting to happen” will really roll out - things like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYkv6jvTpCc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg etc. Is it regrettable that Elaine died? Yes - right along with the other 6000+ pedestrians killed by human drivers that year in the US alone.
I feel that we must largely agree, because you are making similar points to me, albeit with somewhat different apparent sentiment.
For example, your points illustrate that there are perfectly good examples of the previous systems having horrible, regrettable, issues, as well.
I think the real meat of my concerns with this rapid and, in my opinion, reckless and completely unregulated rollout, is that when something does go spectacularly wrong with an AI product, everyone throws their hands up and shouts “NOT IT!” when its time for responsibility and culpability to get handed out.
Personally, I am totally fine with this technology and really any technology so long as the responsible parties are made responsible for their failures and negligence. Today, big tech is trying to claim all the accolades and money for AI, and zero of the responsibility, and are so far being allowed to do so.
Frankly, it seems that they have so thoroughly captured the levers of government meant to regulate them that we will have to wait for their insurers to force them to take responsibility, since someone has to hold the bag when there’s lawsuits. They’ve got a strong lobby, too.
I think we do, except, AI is just another (big, powerful, broad reaching implications) tech, like the internet, or computers, or nuclear fission, or spaceflight (artificial satellites), or powered flight, or the steam engine, or steel making, or circumnavigation capable sailing ships, or gunpowder…
None of those things switched on all at once in an instant, and AI has been creeping up on us for 60+ years. The past 2 or 3 have been a rather dramatic acceleration, fulfilling much of the promise and expectation of the past 50 years, but it’s still not as great as people imagine it could be - a lot like everything else on the list above. Most people “on the cusp” of those technologies had very different visions for what they would bring to the world compared with what actually happened.
Can we “shoot ourselves in the foot” with this one? Yes, but you could do the same with a rock in a bamboo pole with a little gunpowder, too.
But that’s just one guy’s poor foot, or several volunteers tragically crashing to their deaths, etc. These guys are terraforming the planet to be hostile to ours and many (most?) other species as a side effect of their technology.
Even if this technology is twice as earthshattering as the Internet or gunpowder or you name it, it is hard to see the point if most or even many of us have to suffer and die, similarly condemning our heirs, just to force it to market before its time.
This is not some remote future possibility or granola eating hippie concern. There are permit requests on file all over the North America, among others, for AI data facilities that propose to use more water and power than their entire province/state they reside in does, and are securing sweetheart deals for those resources, passing the costs onto the community. The aquifers are draining, the cities are sinking, and their power bills are rising already, and they’re not even built all built yet.
These technologies have a lot of promise and in some non-LLM applications, have already produced incredible results, but to unleash it for mass consumption is irresponsible on a global scale. I can’t help but see current cloud LLMs as large scale basic answer and structured data generators also capable of the not useless ability to perform hundreds of “bad programmer” man-hours in minutes, but they run on a furnace fueled by metaphorical countless burning orphans, and our business and political leaders are taking the stance that is the non-negotiable cost of progress, and it isn’t.
Don’t need AI for that, and it’s not just cars and trucks, either - all transportation (including rail, ship, air) only accounts for 25-30% of fossil fuel consumption. Yeah, AI’s making it worse, so are people’s latest PS3-4-5 gaming consoles, and air conditioning, and steel foundaries, concrete, etc.
Yes, actually, it is. The granola eating hippies were, and still are, right.
Oh, like the financial crisis of 2008-9 - bail us out, we’re too big to fail - it’s not our fault that we rushed into the unregulated territory and ignored all the risk… The taxpayers are the ultimate insurance underwriters.
As such, regardless of technological involvement or not, you must be just about as sad as I am about the current trends regarding responsibility, accountability, enforcement of legal precedents, stability of our systems, etc. In that respect, I’ll say the state of AI is more a symptom than a cause.
There was a scene in Star Wars (the original: A New Hope) where “the senate will no longer be a problem, the emperor has disbanded the body…” I’m waiting for them to start talking about doing that with the courts, they talk about every other outrageous thing imaginable.